America heads to the polls, and into a great unknown

Opinion: Wednesday November 6, NZ time, sees the majority of voting in the 2024 US presidential election. While it is unlikely we will have a confirmed result until later (Thursday is best case, but the result could take weeks, depending on how close it is), the next week promises to be of huge significance not just for the US, but for the world.
While the odds suggest the election itself is too close to call, the lessons of 2020 and the messages out of Donald Trump’s campaign suggest we are in for days of drama, dispute and discontent (with a side of despair for believers in the importance of democracy).
With that in mind, where are the key contests playing out, what do the polls say, and what is at stake over the coming days?
Battleground states, and the flaws in the electoral system
If you are an occasional follower of American politics, you’ll probably have heard a lot of discussion of ‘battleground states’ or ‘swing states’. I detailed some of the issues with the American electoral system during the 2020 election, but the key point for the purposes of this week is that the US President is not elected by the popular vote. In fact, the popular vote means absolutely nothing.
Each American state is allocated a representative proportion of electoral college votes. Winning the popular vote in any given state means that you win every single electoral college vote for that state, regardless of the margin. That means that, for example, the winner of the popular vote in California receives all 54 electoral college votes for that state, regardless of whether the margin of victory is 0.1 percent or 20 percent.
This system creates a series of perverse incentives – neither side campaigns with as much effort in ‘safe’ states – states where they know they have a majority of supporters (or, conversely, in the states where they know they have little support). Instead, the vast majority of campaigning effort is centred on states where polls suggest the two candidates are close. These ‘battleground’ or ‘swing’ states, like Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, will be where the election is won and lost.
What do the polls say?
In short, nobody knows what might happen. Almost all of the major polls currently have the respective candidates within the poll’s margin for error. The New York Times has Kamala Harris in a 1 point lead, while major betting markets have Trump slightly favoured. Momentum does appear to be on Harris’ side – but boy is it close.
In 2016 and 2020, Trump outperformed polls in almost all of the swing states – and could conceivably do so again (though the 2016 election did lead to significant changes in polling techniques). On the other hand, many state polls significantly underestimated Democrats in the 2022 midterms. The swings in polls over the past two-three months suggest the voting population is uncertain, and a lot could come down to the last few days of campaigning. This could well be one of the closest presidential elections in modern history.
What is at stake?
Democracy? Sanity? Decent human values?
While Harris has run a campaign that preaches inclusion, Trump’s latest ramblings provide a very different picture. In the early parts of the campaign, Trump appeared to be listening to advisers and toeing a (slightly) less absurd line emphasising his (misguided) economic credentials. In recent days, that has morphed back into some of the worst of his past rhetoric, including statements on Monday that he “shouldn’t have left” the White House, after very clearly losing the 2020 election, and appearing to endorse violence against the media.
A Trump win would almost certainly be bad news for women, and for minority rights. It would mean an increase in pressure on abortion laws, and continued relaxation of gun control legislation. The fallacy that a Trump presidency would somehow be better for the economy doesn’t hold much water when considering facts, and the tariffs and protectionist attitude Trump espouses are undoubtedly bad for New Zealand.
A Trump win is also undoubtedly bad for democracy. He has campaigned aggressively on the need for tighter voter registration laws, for tough voter ID laws, and for limits on postal and early voting. In short, he will do whatever he can to make it harder for Americans to vote – the same tactics that were used against African-Americans during the civil rights struggle – and exactly the sort of tactics that should terrify anyone who truly values the right to vote.
Let us not forget that Trump is a) a convicted felon, b) has been found liable for sexual assault, and c) has lead multiple companies into bankruptcy. Trump is also responsible for an attempted coup (have we forgotten January 6, 2021?).
Looking beyond the long-term consequences, there are also major potential short-term consequences. Trump and his campaign’s rhetoric suggest it is extremely unlikely they will accept any result other than a victory. There is a real risk of violence and unrest, both in Washington and in many of the swing states. Pressure on electoral officials and judges across the country is going to be immense. I desperately hope America’s institutions are up to the challenge – whatever happens.
I would also urge anyone following the election to ignore the conspiracies and lies Trump has repeatedly used to cast doubt on the election result. If Trump loses this week, it will be because Kamala Harris attracted more votes. There is no evidence to suggest that the election result will be anything but legitimate.